Lindsey A. Goldberg
Lindsey A. Goldberg, International Virtue Signaling: How Female Combatants Shape State Support for Armed Rebellion.
Abstract: International audiences view rebel groups with female combatants as more virtuous and legitimate because of gender norms regarding women and war. As actors who care about their international reputation, states often virtue-signal their support for popular humanitarian norms—norms such as promoting gender inclusivity in political processes. I argue that this performative dynamic motivates states to signal support for rebellions that include female combatants because doing so offers these states a pathway for signaling support for this international norm without requiring stronger commitments to gender equality and women’s rights. I thus hypothesize that the inclusion of female combatants in rebel organizations positively corresponds with the quantity of external state support rebels receive. Specifically, I expect that these virtue-signaling motives render less costly forms of external state support more common for these groups. I statistically evaluate these claims and contribute new insights on gendered, transnational civil war dynamics.
Lindsey A. Goldberg, Carrying the Movement: Gender Roles and Reproductive Violence Within Rebel Organizations.
Abstract: Why do rebel organizations perpetrate reproductive violence against their own female members? I argue that gendered divisions of labor within armed groups help elucidate these phenomena. Rebel groups that allow women to hold stereotypically masculine roles, such as combat positions, likely perceive pregnancy as a threat to women’s expected contributions. Conversely, rebel groups that limit women’s participation to stereotypically feminine roles, such as support positions, are more likely to perceive pregnancy as part of women’s expected contributions. I introduce a novel dataset on reproductive violence within armed rebellions and use these new data to statistically evaluate my hypotheses. I find that gendered divisions of labor indeed correspond with patterns of reproductive violence against rebel women around the world. This research contributes new insights on the under-explored and politically salient phenomena of reproductive violence in armed conflict, focusing on rebel women as both potential contributors to and victims of conflict-related violence.
Lindsey A. Goldberg, It’s What’s Inside that Counts: Internal Gender Dynamics and the Survival of Armed Rebellions.
Abstract: How do internal gender dynamics shape the survival of armed rebel movements? Previous research has demonstrated that incorporating women into the armed ranks of rebel organizations is strategically beneficial for these groups, incentivizing the recruitment of women combatants. New data on women’s myriad activities in armed rebellion—including, but not limited to, women’s inclusion in combat roles—offers new tools for analyzing gendered divisions of labor within armed rebellions worldwide. I combine these new data with my original data on reproductive violence to explore how forced abortions and forced pregnancies condition the strategic benefits of women’s inclusion in rebel organizations. I argue that the expansion of women’s roles within a rebel group enhances the movement’s longevity by expanding the pool of available skills and resources. However, is that enhanced longevity threatened if rebel leaders condone or demand the perpetration of reproductive violence against women in their own organizations? I theorize that given the various motivations that underpin reproductive violence within armed rebellions, forced abortions likely compound—not compromise—the strategic benefits rebel organizations face for including women in combat, auxiliary, and leadership roles. By contrast, I theorize that it is unlikely forced pregnancies improve the longevity of rebel movements, regardless of how they incorporate women. I statistically evaluate my claims through survival analysis and find that the interactive relationships between women’s prevalence in combat and auxiliary roles and the use of forced abortions significantly improve an armed rebellion’s probability of survival. By contrast, I find that the use of forced pregnancies does not significantly alter the survival of these armed movements. Further exploring these dynamics is important as researchers and policymakers continue trying to better predict the trajectories of civil wars and address the gendered abuses that often occur therein.
Lindsey A. Goldberg, Inspired Inclusion: How Rebel Group Competition and Learning Shape Female Combatant Recruitment. (Coauthored with Brian Lai).
Abstract: When and why do rebel organizations begin recruiting women for armed combat? We examine this question through the lens of civil war diffusion processes. Previous research suggests that in a competitive rebel marketplace, armed groups face incentives to differentiate themselves from one another, and women are more empowered to make greater demands on these groups to gain access to their armed ranks. We expand upon this research by theorizing how rebel organizations compete for tangible and intangible resources and learn from one another about the strategic benefits of incorporating female combatants. We argue that greater competition among rebel groups incentivizes the recruitment of female combatants and that as these organizations learn from one another, they begin adopting this gendered recruitment strategy. We primarily use the Women in Armed Rebellion Dataset (WARD) to test our hypotheses, and we contribute new data on when rebel groups begin incorporating female combatants. The results of our statistical analyses support the idea that both competition and learning help explain how the incorporation of female combatants diffuses across armed rebellions worldwide.
Lindsey A. Goldberg, Leading Ladies: Gendered Perceptions of Chief Executives and International Threats. (Coauthored with Brian Lai).
Abstract: How do people perceive women chief executives internationally, and how do those perceptions shape foreign policy preferences? Previous research has focused on the ways in which gender stereotypes shape domestic audiences’ perceptions of their own chief executives. Past work has also demonstrated that those gendered perceptions drive how political leaders are expected to respond to national security threats. However, little research has explored how gender stereotypes shape perceptions of women chief executives in external states or how those perceptions shape foreign policy preferences across different international security contexts. We theorize that preferred actions toward international allies and adversaries are conditioned by the gender stereotypes that are leveraged against chief executives worldwide. As such, we argue that individual support for military action against an international adversary or in support of an international ally depends, in part, on whether those external states are led by a man or a woman. We test these expectations using two different survey experiments in the United States, and we find support for our claims.
Juliana Restrepo Sanín
Juliana Restrepo Sanín, Demanding state recognition, transforming political rights: women’s activism to end violence against women in politics in the Americas
Abstract: In the last twenty years, activists in Latin America have raised awareness about the problem of violence against women in politics (VAWIP). This form of gender-based violence targets women exercising their political rights -not just as candidates or voters, but also as activists and human rights defenders, members of political parties and unions, and so on. Attention to violence against women in politics emerged during processes of democratic deepening and neoliberal reforms in Latin America. In this context, countries enacted multiple legal and political reforms aimed at improving the quality of democratic governance, emphasizing political inclusion while undermining the state and civil society. Women politicians, ‘femocrats’, and activists mobilized to raise awareness about VAWIP and create bill proposals to address the problem. In this chapter, I map the emergence of activist-led state initiatives to address different expressions of VAWIP. Using interviews and content analysis of archival materials, the chapter demonstrates how feminist activists have taken advantage of processes of democratic deepening to expand the legal recognition of women’s political rights. The paper compares three different paths, led by different actors: feminist activists in Bolivia, ‘femocrats’ in Mexico, and international organizations in Colombia. Though the main actor was different in each country, cooperation and support among all of them was necessary for the successful adoption of anti-VAWIP laws. The chapter reflects on the implications of the expansion of political rights, as well as the adoption of anti-VAWIP legislation in countries where state capacity and the rule of law are uneven, and where tensions between democratization and backsliding persist.
Juliana Restrepo Sanín, The Special peace districts in Colombia and the opportunities and limits of descriptive representation (with UF undergraduates: Isabella Stolarczyk, Maria Igarza, Nathalia Ramírez).
Abstract: What happens when a government “creates” a category of exclusion that must be included in elected office? Scholarship on gender, race, and ethnic politics has long theorized the implications of the exclusion of women and racialized minorities from formal political spaces and the need for affirmative action to ensure equitable political representation. This literature has focused on historically excluded groups in the United States and beyond arguing that inclusion is necessary for improving the quality of democratic deliberation and legitimacy. Similar power-sharing arrangements often result from negotiations between governments and rebel groups to ensure sustainable peace. In these examples, the excluded group is defined based on sociodemographic characteristics or politics. As part of the implementation of the 2016 peace agreement, the Colombian government created sixteen Special Transitory Peace Districts. The Circunscripciones Especiales Transitorias de Paz, or CITREP recognize ‘victims’ as a group historically -though not formally- excluded from the National Congress. This paper traces the conceptualization of ‘victims’ as a legal category in Colombia and theorizes the relevance of this ‘created’ category for political understandings of representation. Then I analyze the legislative initiatives (co-)sponsored by the CITREP representatives to understand whether and how they advance the interests of victims of the Colombian conflict. I also examine how ‘victimhood’ interacts with gender, race, and ethnicity to determine the issues advanced by legislators, and the types of alliances they make as Members of Congress. The paper reflects on the limits and opportunities of ‘descriptive’ and ‘substantive’ political representation.
Juliana Restrepo Sanín, The women of autocracy: from trophies to protégés (with UF graduate students Ayu Diasti Rahmawati and Marcelline Amouzou)
Abstract: The introduction of gender as an analytical framework in comparative politics has prompted scholars to examine the roles of women in democratization. Given women’s active role in social movements demanding the end of authoritarian regimes, research in this area tends to presume that women are generally pro-democracy. However, evidence from recent autocratization episodes around the world, shows that some women actively participate in autocratic governments or support autocratization. In this paper, we explore the role of women in sustaining autocracy or autocratization to develop the category “women of autocracy,” which includes not only women autocrats and women executive leaders in autocratizing countries, but also the wives, daughters, and mothers of autocratic leaders who play a role in sustaining autocratic rule. Using V-Dem Institute’s Regimes of the World (RoW) and Episodes of Regime Transformation (ERT) data, we trace the presence of women of autocracy since 1945. We also look at the cases of Chile, Indonesia, and Zimbabwe to explore the role of autocrats’ first ladies in supporting autocracy. We find that, though there are few women autocrats, women play a more significant role in autocratic and autocratizing regimes than previously thought. First ladies in autocratic countries often become gatekeepers, restricting access to the autocrat and serving as close advisors, thus contributing to the maintenance of the regime. However, they still rely on the power of authoritative male figures for legitimacy, therefore affirming the women’s position as second-class citizens even if they are an inherent part of the dominant regime.
David S. Siroky
David S. Siroky, Armed and Dangerous: Explaining Popular Support for Domestic Militia Groups.
Abstract: Why do some citizens support fringe militia groups and non-state home guards? In the US constitution, the Federalist Papers, and many other founding documents, the need for a militia is recognized both in the form of a national guard and in terms of well-armed civil society groups. In countries during civil wars, militia groups have defended civilians and provided services and goods in the absence of a functioning state. However, the existence of non-state militia groups is often more contentious in the absence of civil war or imminent threat of state failure. Using original endorsement experiments, the project assesses four prominent theories of civilian support for militia groups across four politically stable societies.
Ben Smith
Jang, Hye Ryeon and Ben Smith, “Great Powers, Oil, and War: Petroleum Market Geography and Interstate Conflict”
Abstract: Recent scholarship (e.g. Caselli et al 2015; Strüver and Wegenast 2016; Koubi et al 2014; Hendrix 2017; Bakaki 2016) has argued that oil increases the risk of war, whether directly or conditioned on other factors (Kim and Wood 201X; Colgan 2010, 2013). In this paper, we challenge these conclusions and elaborate a theory of a direct oil peace, arguing further that to understand the dynamics of oil and interstate conflict we must contextualize them in an evolving global oil market characterized by rising and falling great powers. We argue that great power perceptions of energy vulnerability effectively outweigh both those powers’ own oil sectors and the scarcity of evidence for a risk of supply disruption. Using spatial network analysis to chart the evolution of global oil flows over the last twenty years, we illustrate how central China has become to those flows as a result of its economic transformation. This network analysis also shows the declining relative centrality of the United States in the world oil market and the emergence of two other networks centered on Russia and on China. We then turn to analysis of time-series cross-sectional data from 164 countries between 1945 and 2010. We move beyond one-size-fits-all assumptions about great powers and disaggregate them to explore the impact of their alliances with oil-producing states. With one exception, we do not find great powers to be especially permissive of oil producing allies. Russian Cold War alliances with oil-producing countries are not associated with any greater likelihood of conflict. Between 1995 and 2010, at least, neither are China’s alliances related to any greater conflict proneness, although that may change in the future as China’s originally economic rise becomes increasingly military as well. There is one exception to the alliance-oil peace. Petro-state allies of the United States, both during and after the Cold War, were modestly more likely to initiate wars than their oil-producing counterparts.
Bagriyanik, Muharrem, Ben Smith, and Adam Bernstein. “Resource Curse or Oil Blessing? Counterfactual Evidence from Africa”
Scholars of resource wealth and politics often argue, counterfactually, that developing states wind up worse off when they are oil-rich than they would be if they had never discovered oil. Still, direct explorations of the question are nonexistent and have yet to make use of the newest techniques for asking counterfactual questions in a methodologically precise way. In this paper, we ask the question directly with regard to sub-Saharan Africa. We employ time-series cross-sectional data from all countries in Africa from 1950 to 2014, using counterfactual estimators for causal inference to ask: would today’s oil-rich African states enjoy better development outcomes if they had never found oil? Our results show that, at most oil revenue reliance thresholds, these countries would fare no better in aggregate development or human development outcomes had they never found oil. For several thresholds, oil causes a modest but robust net benefit to development They also reveal a set of divergent country-specific outcomes in which oil is robustly but modestly related to development in both positive and negative directions.
Bagriyanik, Muharrem, Ben Smith, and Luca Mantegazza, “Succeeding by Seceding? The Fate of Minority Regions With and Without Independence”.
Smith, Ben, “Making Use of Natural Experiments: A Comparative Historical Approach.”
Abstract: With the proliferation of experimental methods in the social sciences and studies based on them have come a set of new challenges for both qualitatively and quantitatively oriented scholars. To a substantial degree the pitfalls and cautionary recommendations of methodological works on experiments (e.g. Dunning 2012, 2008; Diamond & Robinson 2010) rely on a statistical logic unamenable to what are essentially comparative historical data. In this essay, I develop an approach to natural experiment research based on comparative historical tools. By pairing such natural experiments of history with strategies from the comparative historical analytic (CHA) toolbox, it is feasible to demonstrate the “as-if-random” elements of treatment assignments drawing on the analytic parallels between critical junctures and treatment moments. It is further possible to adjudicate between multiple bundled treatments, and to generate and explore hypotheses about configurative treatment effects over time. I use the cases of two kinds of natural experiments of history—island colonization and ethnic region partition—to illustrate the specific benefits of wedding natural experiments with comparative historical analysis. Finally, I present a set of research strategies for incorporating natural historical experiments into multi-method research designs.
Smith, Ben, Indonesia’s Unlikely Transitions: Economic and Political Transformation in the World’s Largest Muslim Nation, 1985-2004.
Abstract: After more than a decade of record price increases and a major crisis in the rich world stemming from them, the global price of oil crashed in the mid-1980s, falling by more than 75%. Indonesia’s New Order regime—an uncommon hybrid autocracy composed of military, single-party, and personalist elements under President Suharto—steered the country to a smooth transition away from oil-funded state-led development toward export-oriented light manufacturing. Just twelve years later, with the Asian Financial Crisis as a devastating backdrop, the world’s largest Muslim-majority country navigated a transition to democracy. In comparative perspective, neither of these transitions were likely in Indonesia—a combination of oil wealth, Muslim majority population, multi-ethnicity and a history of single-party autocracy. This project offers a unique explanation that puts the New Order coalition of army and party at the center of both transitions. Moving beyond arguments to explain Indonesian democratization via elite unity (Slater and Wong 2014, 2022; Horowitz 2015), I suggest that what explains both the market transition of the 1980s and the democratic one a decade later is a) changes in the source of army and party loyalty to Suharto and b) their ability and incentive to act independently during the regime crisis of 1998. I then show how this sequential model of economic, followed by democratic, transition helps us to understand a broad range of similar transitions across the Global South.
Smith, Ben, Carolyn Warner and David Siroky, “Religion and Nationalist Mobilization: Evidence from Kurdistan”.
Abstract: Why do some ethnic minority groups mobilize violently against much stronger central governments, and what role might religion play in motivating or giving low-power groups the capacity for violent collective action in the face of overwhelming odds and the threat of massive retaliation? This paper theorizes and assesses one important way in which religion might influence asymmetric violent conflict—specifically, it investigates the role of religious leadership in creating a legacy of mobilization that subsequent (secular) leaders can draw upon to organize collective action, even when the conflict is not explicitly characterized by religious rhetoric or goals. Drawing on comparative historical analysis of Kurdish minorities in Syria, Iran, Iraq and Turkey, the study shows how religious elites successfully mobilized mass followings in some places but not others, and how the legacy of religious leadership has continued to shape contemporary Kurdish nationalism. Against a background of international competition and domestic reforms, the article demonstrates how religious leadership shaped collective action and can shed light on differential mobilization across nominally similar groups and regions. Potential extensions to other transnational groups and implications for research on the role of religion in asymmetric conflict are also discussed.